In March 23, 2018, the Ministry of Commerce issued a list of discontinued products for the 232 measures for the import of steel and aluminum products in the United States and sought public opinion to impose tariff on some imported products from the United States in order to balance the losses caused by the US tariff imposed on imported steel and aluminum products to Chinese interests.
In October 26th, US Commerce Minister Evans also visited China. He also raised the demand for RMB appreciation and continued to exert pressure on China. Not only the US, but also China's trade surplus with the EU and Japan has soared. The world did not expect exports to increase so fast after China's entry into the WTO. Japanese fortune Shiokawa Masagarashiro, not only during his September 1st visit to Japan, and Snow's consultation on the issue of RMB, but also at the International Monetary Fund meeting held in September to exchange views with other countries. At the same time, at the APEC finance ministers meeting, he proposed to discuss the exchange rate of the RMB.
A comprehensive trade war will be disastrous. This disastrous nature is reflected not only in the economy but in the chain reaction triggered by economic fluctuations. If a comprehensive trade war starts, who will win? Let alone, the two economies will be hit hard at the same time. The economic development has been brought about by the stagnation or even recession. The social contradictions that are hidden by the speed of development will be highlighted, the social contradictions tend to be sharp, the overall situation is prone to turbulence, and the extremism, the religion, the populist or the fascist forces have the soil of growth and development. In particular, the American electoral system is more likely to increase this instability, and the social recession and turbulence will likely bring people with extreme ideas to the summit of power, and then use war to transfer the attention of the people and transfer the disaster.
Trade war this thing I think to consider the import and export of both sides: the United States: imports are mainly daily consumer goods, such as clothing, toys and so on, the large scale, and the high correlation with the lives of the people, trade war will cause the American people's daily consumption costs greatly increased, will cause the American people to oppose the policy; Exports are mainly such as food crops and chips and other technical products, which will reduce the income of some high-tech companies, and some of the agriculture is affected. In view of the large scale of agricultural cultivation in the United States, there will be not much people affected. China: imports of grain (mainly soya bean), the price of edible oil is expected to rise, and chip technology products are promoted domestically. The problem owner has mentioned that Taiwan is likely to follow the United States, so the electronic products are expected to rise in price, and the daily consumption of exports is dangerous because of the loss. After the US market, the surplus capacity can not be digested in time, which will cause a large number of unmarketable, shut down and unemployed people in the above-mentioned industries. There will be a lot of people with this effect. The decrease of national income will lead to domestic demand atrophy and the domestic economy will have a great impact. People think that the analysis of China from economic data will suffer a little more, but the political system in the United States determines that their people can not lose, the pressure of the government will be great, and the domestic adjustment policy, the people unite to survive the shock of this wave of economy, the United States government will first break down.
have an idea that, because of intellectual property rights, it is possible to find some industries which are more severely restricted by intellectual property rights. What is noteworthy is the field of generic drugs. Did it not mean that developing countries were forced to copy some proprietary drugs under intellectual property rights under certain conditions? It looks like the India pharmaceutical industry is doing this. Can we take the opportunity to declare that some drugs in the United States are too expensive to quote a specific clause?
To lose is the third Opium War; to win and rise, and from then on, international rulers are at least mainly involved in the formulation.Flat, go on
Hear nothing of.We must be conscious of one thing, that is, the complexity of the market is beyond human cognition. If the analysis of statistical data can accurately reflect, predict and guide the economic operation, then the planned economy has long been defeated by the market economy. The Soviet Union is counting all the indicators that can be thought of, and how much math genius and brain power spent. In the end, it is still impossible to accurately reflect, predict and guide the operation of the economy by statistical data. Now, let others predict the advantages and disadvantages of a wide range of policies through a few simple public statistics in the market economy. Is this reality? Is that possible? Even if the Soviet Union Planning Commission, a mathematical genius, has come back, all secret statistics in China and the United States will be open.
When we study and predict Trump's China policy, what is the main limitation on the economic level? Obviously, these studies and discussions are inadequate and inadequate. I think there are 4 big probability events. We need to study them well and deal with them. The first is the appreciation of the dollar. In fact, before Trump became president, the dollar appreciated and continued to appreciate. Recently, the signals from the Federal Reserve have been very clear. When the economic growth of the United States reaches 2%, even if it is very hot, we need to raise interest rates to cool the economy. Now the US GDP is close to 2% at one percent points, and President Trump will finally achieve three percent point growth. To achieve this goal, he also needs to introduce a series of policies. The growth rate of the US economy will certainly not decrease. If we continue to rise, raising interest rates is a big probability event.